Ambiguity Effect (Why do we prefer an option with known information?)
The Ambiguity Effect, a brief explanation
What is the Ambiguity Effect?
The affect effect describes the tendency to select an option for which the probability of a favourable outcome is known when the other option lacks information.
Examples
Imagine you are picking between two adult learning classes so that you can learn a new language. Everything is identical about these two classes apart from a friend of your previously attended one of the classes with positive feedback. Using the heuristic you would select the class that your friend attended.
In politics when making a decision about which of two political parties to vote when they have some identical important policies someone relying on this heuristic would vote for the party that they know most about.
The literature
Ritov, I. & Baron, J. (1990). Reluctance to vaccinate: omission bias and ambiguity. Behavioral Decision Making, 3(4), 263-277. Doi: 10.1002/bdm.3960030404
Frisch, D. & Baron, J. (1988). Ambiguity and rationality. Behavioral Decision Making, 1(3), 149-157. Doi: 10.1002/bdm.3960010303
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