Availability Heuristic/Bias (Why do we believe that things that have recently are more likely to happen again?)
The Availability Heuristic/Bias, a brief explanation
What is the Availability Bias?
The availability bias describes the tendency to rely on information that comes easily to mind (i.e., more recent) when estimating the likelihood of an event occurring.
Examples
When voting during a general election an important issue may have been mentioned by an electoral candidate during campaigning e.g., flood risk. If there was a recent flood in your local area you may estimate the likelihood of flooding occurring again soon as high and therefore vote for a candidate who focuses on flood related issues.
In criminal justice news the media often reports on potentially violent crimes (e.g., muggings) this can lead to greater estimates when you are asked how likely you are to be a victim of this crime.
The literature
Liang, Y., Baral, A., Shahandashti, M. & Ashuri, B. (2022). Availability heuristic in construction workforce decision-making amid COVID-19 pandemic: empirical evidence and mitigation strategy. Journal of Management in Engineering, 38(5). Doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0001077
Mase, A., Cho, H. & Prokopy, L. (2015). Enhancing the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) by exploring trust, the availability heuristic, and agricultural advisers’ belief in climate change. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 41, 166-176. Doi: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.12.004
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