Normalcy Bias (Why do we underestimate the likelihood of negative events occurring?)
The normalcy bias, a brief explanation
What is the normalcy bias?
The normalcy bias is the tendency to underestimate the likelihood or impact of a negative event occurring compared to other events.
Example
If you live in an area that has rare occurrences of hurricanes you may underestimate the seriousness of a hurricane alert when the alert system sounds.
The literature
Hirabayashi, M., Kojima, H., Oiwa, K. & Ohashi, H. (2013). Modelling the effects of noise-mediated enhancements of risk perception against normalcy bias. AIP Conference Proceeedings, 1559(1), 343-351. Doi: 10.1063/1.4825028
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