Outcome Bias (Why do we judge a decision based on its outcome?)
The outcome bias, a brief explanation
What is the outcome bias?
The outcome bias is the tendency to judge the validity of a decision based on its outcome rather than biasing it on the quality of the decision that was made.
Examples
A house developer decides to invest in purchasing a new house after a friend made a profit when interest rates were at a good level.
When watching your favourite sports team win a match/game you may view their performance as good even though they came close to losing.
The literature
Brownback, A. & Kuhn, M. A. (2019). Understanding outcome bias. Games and Economic Behavior, 117, 342-360. Doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2019.07.003
Hugh, T. B., Dekker, S. W. A. (2009). Hindsight bias and outcome bias in the social construction of medical negligence: a review. Journal of Law: Medical, 16(5), 856-857.
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