Projection Bias (Why do we think we will prefer the same things in the future?)
The projection bias, a brief explanation
What is the projection bias?
The projection bias is the tendency to believe that our preferences, beliefs, value and behaviours will stay the same in the future.
Examples
When ordering takeaway food when you are hungry you may over-order thinking that you will still by this hungry later.
As the manager for a small shop you may overorder an item as it is currently low in stock.
The literature
Loewenstein, G., O’Donoghue, T. & Rabin, M. (2003). Projection bias in predicting future utility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1209-1248
Loewenstein, G. (2005). Projection bias in medical decision making. Medical Decision Making, 25(1). Doi: 10.1177/0272989×04273799
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